Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
